"I'm very convinced that we're in a bear market and that today's rally is a sucker rally as the market charts are showing very bearish patterns and volumes for today's jump are low."
I agree with you.
CNBC-TV just discussed this today with (Carter Worth, Chief Tech Analyst at Oppenheimer) whom I have followed for years and on par with his analysis for some time.
I argue that today's Dow up 274 move had more to do with short covering than new big long term money entering the market.
The media and long only investment advisors will take today's gains as if it were to run forever. What they will not say is that the S&P 500 is still trading just below its May 2010 Flash Crash low, and people thought after we recovered from that, we would not go below that.
I have published numerous articles supported by factual data and cited major sources about the markets, economy, deficit and risks associated thereto.
Here are a few sample articles you may want to read for further info.
"Economists Said What? Sorry, But The Recession is Not Over"
"You’re Sure There’s a Recovery in 2010, Right?"
11.01.2009 (updated 05.17.2010)
"Economic Crack. Risk to The U.S. Economy"
I don't subscribe to the "double dip theory." I argue that we have never left the recession.
How can anyone call a bull market or that there is no more recession when we have near 10?nemployment, record deficit to GDP, the EU in economic shambles, China (the Global "savor") slowing economy with their market hitting 52 week lows, Brazil, India raising interest rates to slow their economies, etc?
The S&P 500 is still down about 30?ince July 2000 high. We have not recovered from that for 10 years. The growth has not been there.
NASDAQ is still down about 64?ince on or about March 20, 2000.
I did call this top 3rd week March 2000 when I was at a major Wall Street firm, and all clients who listed to me then (most did) I got them out before the market tanked.
I also called the real estate top and advised caution thereof.
I started posting this here back in 2007:
Link 1: (2007 Y!A post)
Link 2: (2007 Y!A post)
I have said that this is a multi-year recession. There will be positive and negative data, but my main focus is the global consumer. If people are in personal recession, like they are in the USA that means they are not going to be buying things in mass. And if they aren't buying in mass, that means companies won't be selling products as much. And if companies are not selling products; and if companies are not selling as much, that means decreased earnings. if companies are not selling as much, there is a lesser need for jobs. And guess where we are?
Until the consumer is stable, the economy will have issues.
For investors, I have suggested considering dollar cost averaging depending on one’s time frame, age and overall situation.
"Buy? Sell? Run or Hide? What To Do this Year May be a Lot Like What You Should Do Every Year."
http://netadvisor.wordpress.com/2010/01/20/buy-sell-run-or-hide-what-to-do-this-year-may-be-a-lot-like-what-you-should-doÂ everyÂ year/
There are lots of short term trading opportunities, but this may be risky for those who may not have the time and experience to manage this bear market.
Today's date: 07.07.2010
Data and information posted hereto (c) 2010 Net Advisor™
edit for the thms dn spammer - again:
It's OK not to agree with me. I like hearing different viewpoints. That is what makes a market. What I try to do is provide credible evidence with citations, and use history to support my answers, just like I have done here.